Sunday, 25 June 2017

Stories we should be thinking about 25/06/17

Stories we should be thinking about

Macro matters:

Whoever said the financial markets were easy? On Friday evening I made the following Twitter observation:

‘The markets! Couple fastFT headlines: 'time to brace for ‘market turmoil’, warns JPM' & 'Summer Friday on Wall St: Vix falls back < 10'.

So who/what to believe?

I liked this from @Callum­­_Thomas who noted a conservatism starting to get priced into bond yields.  Hello a slowdown in developed market PMI measures with all the slower growth and issues that may induce?

But as noted in the quote above the VIX index (aka the ‘fear index’) is so low.  Little fear out there…


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Wednesday, 21 June 2017

"The UK consumer is not in a complete stupor says Whitbread"

I wrote a piece titled "The UK consumer is not in a complete stupor says Whitbread" which was uploaded just now to the ShareProphets website.  A link to the piece (free sign-up) is here.


Sunday, 18 June 2017

Stories we should be thinking about

Stories we should be thinking about

Macro matters:

Let’s start with global bonds this week – supposedly the longer-term / better insight into market and their value has been rising (i.e. prices up, yields down):


Is this exhibiting pessimism about the world?  Certainly if you look at the US Treasury yields they are barely reacting to higher interest rates. 



And as noted by @lcdloans covenant lite loans are rising:



Put it all together and some unusual signalling by the bond markets: pessimism in government bonds about the world but risk-embracing in the corporate bond fraternity.  


To read the rest of the Stories we should be thinking about click here for free access!