Sunday, 22 April 2018

Stories we should be thinking about

Stories we should be thinking about


Let’s start with Brexit or - more specifically - the rise and rise of soft Brexit as
noted here:


‘Pro-Leave sources told City A.M. that some "sensible" Brexiters were increasingly
coming around to the idea, as long as it was positioned as a finite extension to the
transition period'


A longer transitional period sounds good, correct?  Well, the trouble is Brexit
is a negative in an absolute sense...it is a question of how much management of
the situation takes place.  Take this story, for example:


"snapshot of an industry struggling with uncertainty around Brexit, decline in diesel
demand & a particularly strong March last year when buyers seized the chance to
purchase cars before new vehicle excise duty rates came into force that April"


Meanwhile in Europe I quite liked the chart below showing the likely timings over
the next year or two re a tightening of European Central Bank policy:


Another indication of progressively tighter money in the world’s most advanced
economies.  So what does this mean for currencies?  
I liked this via @AndreasSteno:

‘While classic rates spreads have not been able to explain the recent moves in
the G10 space, relative curvature is...Relative 2s5s continue to indicate more
upside for EUR/USD’
Interesting point.  Now a higher euro should also inspire European reform
which, for me, is the critical aspect of the future of Europe debate over the
next few months. Loved these cartoons from this wonderful selection:


To read the rest of Stories we should be thinking about click HERE. 

Friday, 20 April 2018

Financial Orbit in the financial media this week

My three articles on ShareProphets this week were...

An article about Saga on the Share Prophets website which you can access here: 

"Saga: buy'em even if you are a young'un"


I also wrote on the same website another article this time on the property stock Hammerson which you can access here:

"Hammerson - commonsense on one bid, madness on another"


And then I wrote a piece on the consumer staple Unilever:

"Unilever - buy a Magnum, not the shares"

ShareProphets

I also appeared on the VOX Markets podcast talking about Debenhams, Sky, Unilever and Ultra Electronic.  You can access this here.  

Vox Markets

And finally, you can read my views on Iberian equities as discussed here on behalf of one of my trade clients. 



Sunday, 15 April 2018

Stories we should be thinking about

Stories we should be thinking about


So a bounceback in markets in recent weeks...and so everyone starts to think
about positive returns.  It is true that if you want to make returns you have to be
patient...and be prepared to be invested even at times of strife (especially at times
of strife)
(h/t @callum_thomas)


The trouble is life is not currently easy - especially for the world’s largest/most
influencial investment bank - as this wonderful cartoon via @OccupyWisdom
shows:


And how is the US administration pushing back?  Fascinating to see the
update from the US Treasury on currency manipulation (no country
was deemed a currency manipulator but added India to the list of countries
to watch include China, Japan, Korea, Switzerland & EZ by way of naming
Germany) which is wonderfully summarised below by @ING_Economics:




So why no manipulator?  Well the US has got to fund that big deficit...


But actually the biggest recent outflows have been in equities...

To read the rest of Stories we should be thinking about click HERE.