Sunday, 12 November 2017

Stories we should be thinking about

Stories we should be thinking about

Got to start with Brexit...not getting any easier for Theresa May. As today’s Sunday Times notes she has a few issues to deal with...

Senior European politicians and officials warn that the talks are entering a “crisis mode” as a preliminary deal will probably not be reached in December, as previously expected, but could instead be postponed until March

Plotters reveal that 40 Conservative MPs — eight short of the number required to force a leadership challenge — have joined a list of Tory rebels who want her to resign

The EU withdrawal bill returns to the Commons on Tuesday with Labour expected to join Tory rebels to inflict a series of damaging defeats on the government.

Meanwhile...in the latest Brexit polling there looks like a pretty clear recent trend...

And of course Brexit apparently means more paperwork too (nice statistic from today’s Financial Times):
Brexit is messy no doubt with more twists and turns to come.  Maybe the penny is dropping though...and hopefully that drives some sensible thinking.  Still at least UK assets are already the most dis-liked (consistently) in regular multi-asset investment surveys.  

Good read here: "Europe needs a Germany that will veto half-baked proposals...and provide leadership". I would agree.  I think Merkel gets it...after all she has her political legacy to put together.  At least thanks to lagged benefits of ECB stimulus the growth outlook is better...

...but what Europe really needs is a combination of supply-side reform and some regional aid/rebalancing to go with this...

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